MAYORAL election reporter Phil Sands considers what might happen to the losers in Watford's first mayoral election.

This is a high stakes game for all the major parties in which anything other than victory in the mayoral election on Thursday, May 2 will have huge repercussions for the big three.

The heaviest fallout would come if Labour fail to win. It could mean no more Vince Muspratt in Watford's politics.

He has staked his future on being elected mayor and his leadership of the party could be undermined if he is defeated.

For seven years as council leader he has dominated the town's political scene. It would be impossible for him to lead the opposition for four years, after so much time as ship's captain.

He is engaged to an officer at Kings Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council, and will shortly become a father. As opposition leader he will not earn a living wage from politics and simple economics suggest he might move to Norfolk if defeated, something he has already suggested.

The impact on the Labour Party is hard to guess. If they have contingency plans in place, problems could be controlled. But such is Councillor Muspratt's dominance there appears to be no obvious successor. To have groomed a replacement would be to have suggested the unthinkable.

There are people capable of leading - Councillor Brian Graham or Steve Palmer would be the most obvious, realistic choices -but uniting the distinct factions within the council group will be a urgent and difficult challenge.

And whoever were to emerge as leader would not only have to work in opposition to the mayor, but would have to prevent the rot of defeat spreading.

Watford's MP Claire Ward will not want her power base eroded with the seat removed from the safetly of Labour's hands.

A Tory mayor would serve as a strong platform from which to launch a campaign for the parliamentary seat at the next General Election.

A Liberal Democrat mayor would cement the party's rise, and would be another step closer to a credible challenge for a Lib Dem MP within the next decade.

Labour would no longer be able to peddle the myth that "Lib Dems can't win here", opening the way for Labour and Tory support to shift their way.

The alternative for the Liberal Democrats - a failure to win - could threaten the standing of the party locally.

Councillor Iain Sharpe is a reluctant leader and, like Labour, there is no obvious successor. Dorothy Thornhill's seat in Oxhey is up for election next year and she may think long and hard before standing again.

Both councillor's will not relish the thought of another four years in opposition, with less power to influence decisions than ever before.

Almost as much is at stake for the Conservatives. Failing to win will be less of a blow, and picking up even one council seat will put them hobbling back on the road to recovery after a few painful, difficult years.

But the Tories must come in first or second place. Third place, even if they run it close, would confirm their position as the third force in the town's local politics. It would be a disaster for future parliamentary campaigns.

With Gary Ling running as mayoral candidate and Tim Williams as group leader, the position of local leadership is confused. It would be difficult for Councillor Williams to continue as a credible head after not wanting to stand as mayor and, as with the other parties, there are no obvious successors.

Only the Green Party and the Socialist Alliance have nothing to lose. Green mayoral candidate Steve Rackett has picked up many fans, even among his political opponents, and forced himself on the scene by fighting an imaginative and bold campaign.

If he can win a seat on the council, it would be a massive boost to a party which is still new to Watford. The Socialist Alliance would also be delighted to pick up a council seat, but will not have failed expectations if they do not.

April 22, 2002 16:00